November was an eventful month weather-wise and can be split into two halves with the former stormy but mild, and the latter settled, largely dry but bitterly cold. Two named storms early in the month caused hazardous weather for many, with Storm Ciarán, the strongest (lowest pressure) November storm recorded in England and Wales since records began. We also had the first snow of the 2023/24 season later in the month.
Looking ahead, the colour weather maps in the banner above and in the summary image show the European long range weather model temperature and pressure forecast for December. The yellow/orange colours are indicating above-normal temperatures for much of Western and Southern Europe.
After our initial sharp cold snap early this month, the jet stream has re-activated and allowed a mild and wet oceanic Westerly wind regime to take over. This mostly dull weather is expected to continue over the next few days, although some more changeability is on the way for mid-December.
A strong area of high pressure will build in the Eastern Atlantic and push into France; this should force a drier and settled influence on the Southern half of the British Isles. This does favour a prolonged spell lasting a few days of continued crisp and clear wintery days, although the risk of fog forming due to low wind and clear skies in places overnight could hamper this and give a murkier feel to things.
Further North and in Scotland, weather fronts circulating around the high will allow wetter, windier weather to make an appearance.
For the week of Christmas and into the New Year, weather model uncertainty conveniently increases. A milder and wetter Atlantic low-pressure pattern is looking the most likely to dominate (shown by the banner map above), but European weather could be controlled by forces further afield.
The Madden-Julian oscillation (commonly known as the MJO) is a region of enhanced convection that tracks along the equator from West to East.
Although this weather pattern occurs halfway across the world, when it enters certain phases, and when other global atmospheric conditions are right, it can influence the weather pattern elsewhere.
If things line up, this could lead to more high-pressure forming North of Europe and drawing colder air in from the Arctic or Eastern Europe. For now, this looks unlikely, but is something to keep an eye on.
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