Weather Watch for July 2022

Despite an unsettled beginning and end to the month, the middle of June saw high pressure bring plenty of sunshine and warmth across the UK. We saw the hottest day of 2022 so far during this mid-June warm spell with 32.7C recorded at London Heathrow on the 17^th June. The warmest of these days were caused by a Spanish plume event, where very warm and moist air arrived from the South bringing hot weather as well as thunderstorms. These weather events typically occur a few times every summer and there are some indications for another to arrive later in July.

We expect a varied picture across the country for July. We all begin the month with some cooler and wetter weather for the first few days as low pressure sits overhead. Thankfully for some, high pressure is forecast to build in from the Atlantic into Ireland later next week. This should bring warmer and more settled weather for Southern regions and Ireland, however not everyone can benefit from this. Scotland can expect some milder conditions and showers, including some larger rain bands occasionally creeping in from low pressure to the North.

Our map this month above shows the long range computer model’s total sunshine forecast for July. We can see the orange colours dominate across Western Europe and Southern England, whilst blue shading over Scotland and Northern Ireland suggests cloudier weather. Unfortunately, some uncertainty for mid to late July means that we may see the unsettled weather expected over Scotland become more influential in the South. These signals mean more of the cloudier and slightly cool weather seen this week becoming more frequent as we go through the month.

To add to this uncertainty, there is potential for another Spanish plume event to occur. These tend to not reach very far North, being restricted mostly to the South-East but if all the right conditions come together, a mini heatwave lasting 2-3 days could take place across the whole country. These events are also associated with strong thunderstorms, so be sure to keep listening out for any weather warnings over the next few weeks!